Usually it is the short term trader who immerses himself in the news and in the psychology of investors. This is, of course, to out guess the long term investor and nibble away at his or her profits. Here we present a couple of thoughts about group psychology as it may apply to the current influenza epidemic, pork prices, swine flu, and drugs like tamiflu, as well as vaccines.

This writer just got back from making a run to the grocery store where pork chops were selling for a dollar less a pound than normal. He proudly bought two pounds of chops and when he returned home bearing his prize his normally frugal wife announced that she wasn’t going to eat any. Please note that there are no influenza cases locally but that the news about influenza in general and swine flu in particular is non-stop.

So, it turns out that the current influenza epidemic is not swine flu. This influenza strain is a mixture of viruses that have managed to combine, as viruses tend to do. Experts like the World Health Organization and the Communicable Disease Center are saying that this influenza is not a “swine flu” and even when they thought the influenza was swine flu they said that it is fine to eat pork as influenza is passed by coughs, sneezes, and unwashed hands.

So, what is this influenza business going to do to hog farming or companies like Hormel who make all that Spam and Cure 81 bacon?

Countries have stockpiled vaccines, of which none work for the new strain. Countries that have stockpiled anti influenza drugs like tamiflu and relenza are looking very smart. We suspect that the stockpiling of these anti influenza drugs will become the craze in the next few years.

There are four commonly used antiviral medications for this strain of influenza. Two of these work for A H1N1 and two do not.

Zanamivir, trade name Relenza, works.
Oseltamivir, trade name Tamiflu, works.

The A H1N1 flu is resistant to Amantadine, trade name Symmetrel, and Rimantadine, trade name Flumadine.

The various stocks have already reflected these facts.

The country of Colombia, which has had one confirmed case of H1N1 influenza, is shutting schools and telling anyone who is ill to stay home while health care personnel make house visits.

In times of crisis there is a tendency to panic and a tendency to believe all sorts of inaccurate things. Tamiflu and Relenza will become household names and will be requested for every possible ailment, influenza or not, from now on even when the so called swine flu brand of influenza is long gone.

Swine flu will stay with us as a name even though it is innacurate and swine flu will deal a blow to pork producers even though there was never a health risk of eating well cooked bacon. Well, maybe someone will come up with a pork chop smoked with tamiflu or relenza, or better yet a genetically engineered pig with tamiflu in its fat! Maybe the point if to watch those biotech companies!

Popularity: 9% [?]

Related Content

Subscribe to the post comments feeds or Leave a trackback