The world is concerned about deaths from influenza in Mexico as the Swine flu spreads. Luckily many countries have stocked anti viral medications such as tamiflu. For the short term trader the volatility in the pharmaceutical market may offer a chance for substantial profits as nations deal with the reality versus the uncertainty caused by the swine flu. Will we have an influenza epidemic or will the swine flu be contained? Which medications, tests, surgical masks, etc. will be in demand and how will stock prices react?
According the website for the swine flu at the Communicable Disease Center (CDC) “the medications zanamivir by itself or oseltamivir with amantadine or remantadine should be started as soon as possible after the onset of symptoms and continued for five days.”
Trading the swine flu influenza outbreak will take a bit of homework and organizing.
First you need to go to a site like the CDC swine flu update site and read. Then you need to check on the internet for the “trade names” of the medications the CDC lists as they give “generic names.” Then you need to check on who makes these meds.
The swine flu news is full of pictures of people wearing surgical masks. So who makes these and will they be able to keep up? Are they being shipped from China by airfreight such as UPS or FedEx? In national emergencies, real or imagined, folks will pay for speed.
The influenza is spreading rapidly because of air travel and because it is a new strain to which no human has immunity. In the United States there have been no deaths so far but typically influenza kills the very old, the very young, and the immunosuppressed (transplants and cancer therapy).
There will be deaths from this disease and the press and public will react even as the swine flu version of influenza burns itself out. There is talk of a vaccine for swine flu so look at who makes vaccines. Then look at the fact that it can take six months to culture enough virus, inoculate the eggs in which the virus grows and produce enough vaccine to inoculate the world against this type of influenza.
Trading in the companies that make vaccine may well be lucrative even though it is likely that the swine flu will have slowed down by the time and large amount of vaccine is available.
Roche, which makes tamiflu, will already be bid up but may fluctuate according to swine flu news as the influenza works it course.
Companies like 3M which make face masks and every other conceivable product may find their stock jump started out of the recession by the swine flu outbreak.
Whoever can come up with a more rapid swine flu test, hours versus days, will be a winner and news about the possibility will make stocks jump temporarily.
In the meantime we suggest that you cover your nose and mouth in public, go shopping at night and away from crowds and do a little influenza homework, swine flu homework. And, that’s tamiflu by Roche.
A last note is that there is a terrible complication to influenza called Reye Syndrome. It causes brain swelling in little children given aspirin when they have chicken pox or influenza. The recommended treatment for a fever with the swine flu is Tylenol!
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