When the so-called Swine Flu first surfaced we talked about “trading the flu.” Two anti viral meds kill the A H1N1 flu and two don’t. Lots of folks bought facemasks. Now there is a race to produce a flu vaccine for A H1N1. It may well be time to trade the flu vaccine race.

Some of the panic has subsided but the press keeps milking the flu scare. A theoretical concern is that the A H1N1 virus will mutate over the Northern Hemisphere summer and become a killer in the fall as apparently happened with the “Spanish flu” in 1918.

This article is largely background information on the A H1N1 flu, previously called “swine flu.” For the well informed, trading opportunities will arise in relation to pharmaceutical companies that make influenza vaccine as well companies that make anti viral medications and products as basic as facemasks and cleansers.

As accurate news alternates with hype the wise trader will avoid being sucked into group psychology and will successfully trade the influenza vaccine situation.

Whether the flu mutates or not (is has not as of this week) there will be influenza vaccines available this fall. The companies making influenza vaccine include Glaxo, Baxter, Sinovac in China and others. The technology for making influenza vaccine is time tested and works. However, making sufficient quantity of safe influenza vaccine takes time.

The virus is injected into eggs where it grows and is then re-injected into more eggs until a sufficient supply is available. All of this needs to be done under sterile conditions and needs to be tested on animals and people before a safe influenza vaccine can go out to the public. This process typically starts in March to have vaccine available by September.

Companies such as Baxter and Glaxo have been making vaccines for a long time and have the technology and resources to produce enough vaccine to treat the world, given time. A question regarding this influenza vaccine is if someone will try to get their influenza vaccine out on the market sooner than others. If someone bypasses safety procedures in the production process for making an influenza vaccine what will the results be? If someone jumps the gun will influenza vaccine supplies run out?

Will the history of defective Chinese medications exported to the third world with deaths resulting repeat itself with a flu vaccine?

There were lawsuits in the 1970’s after the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine. The 1976 Swine Flu vaccine may or may not have caused the problems described but lawsuits followed the influenza vaccination campaign that year.

Flu stories are likely to continue as the World Health Organization has declared a “global pandemic.” What this means is that this flu has spread in two global regions. The virus is still highly contagious but not especially dangerous to the average healthy person.

There is some evidence that genetically isolated communities, such as the Inuit in Northern Canada, are more prone to more serious complications. Thus we may see some very unfortunate news on the TV about pockets of more deaths from this flu. Knowing the news media it is unlikely that these incidents will be reported as being isolated but rather be touted as a genetic mutation that threatens the world.

The astute trader will keep with the story and trade successfully.

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